The New Security Deal between China and Solomon Islands: What Implications does it bring for Western Maritime Alliance in the Indo-Pacific?
Maritime Tourism in Pakistan
May 16, 2022
Pak-Qatar Maritime Relations Pakistan way out from drowning economy
June 27, 2022
The Solomon Islands, a country with a population of about 700,000 constitutes a chain of over hundreds of islands in the South-Western Pacific region. The country has become the talk of the town in recent times due to its increasing engagement and cooperation policy with China, thereby threatening the decades-old influence, dominance, and the interests of the West in the region.
The text of the document had not been made public by either of the parties. This element of “secrecy” entailed, is what arouses the suspicions nationwide as well as internationally in Australia, the United States, New Zealand, and other island countries in the Oceania region.
However, a draft of the rumoured deal was leaked in March 2022, from within the Solomon Islands and the main treaty is thought to be similar to this leaked draft, which encapsulates the following mutually agreed policy decisions:
Solomon Islands’ prime, strategic location in the vicinity of the Pacific, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States, is what makes this agreement extremely substantial. Through the Solomon Islands, China can ensure maritime surveillance of Sea Lanes of Communications (SLOC) between the US and its Pacific allies. By establishing a Chinese naval presence in the Pacific region, China can counter the US’s “third island strategy” to contain China’s influence in Pacific waters. China’s armed force presence on land and offshore would directly equate to decreased West presence and influence, just like in South Asia and East Asia. Patrolling, intelligence collection, spying, defence planning, etc. would all bow down in China’s favour. The agreement postulates the establishment of Chinese naval facilitation centers in the Solomon Islands for commercial purposes. Nonetheless, according to Western experts, these facilitation centers can easily be camouflaged into naval bases, posing dire consequences to the security and maritime presence of the Western alliance as well as the existing geopolitical structure of the Pacific and Oceania region. The agreement projects China’s willingness to pursue a security role in the Southwest Pacific and with the daily increment of PLA-Navy’s deployment, the Chinese wish is transforming into reality. Western analysts also reflect upon the Chinese ambition to strengthen its diplomatic ties with the Pacific region so as to build a narrative and reinforcement of the recognition of the mainland China and not Taiwan because the Pacific islands are among the few states left to render diplomatic recognition of Taiwan and not mainland China.
As of now, both the involving parties have vehemently and frequently denied the rumours of setting up a Chinese naval base. The Prime Minister of the Solomon Islands, Sogavare has stated, “The agreement is to ensure State’s stability from the inside and not to feed any geopolitical conspiracy as the island shall avoid militarisation”
But the opposition leader Matthew Wale said
“ I do not believe the prime minister’s promise that the deal wouldn’t lead to a Chinese base in the country. I think this is the beginning of something more serious to come in this region”
He also fears,
“The security agreement would lead to a crackdown on the country’s most populous province, Malaita — where there is strong opposition to the Switch — and a return to the violence that claimed about 200 lives from 1998 to 2003”
Fears raised from within the Solomon Islands are based upon the concerns that by signing a security deal with China, Sogovare has secured his government’s future and with increased Chinese armed presence within the country, Sogavare’s political opponents could be targeted for surveillance or arrest. It reflects Beijing’s aggressive and undemocratic use of force will no longer remain a national issue; the practices shall be exported across borders. Furthermore, China’s police contingent, or PLA regular forces in the future, shall witness the protection of ethnic Chinese Solomon Islanders as falling within an extra-territorial remit.
The Opposition leader Mathew Wade expressed his skepticism,
“All the drivers of instability, insecurity, and even threats to national unity in the Solomon Islands are entirely internal,” the Solomon Star newspaper quoted Wale as saying on Wednesday. “This means that the deal, in giving an opportunity to military posturing by China, has nothing to do with Solomon Islands national security. I doubt that the provision for this in the deal is inadvertent, rather it is calculated for geopolitical effect. On the part of Prime Minister Sogavare, this is mercenary, on the part of China it is an opportunity too good to miss.”
“New Zealand has a long-term security partnership with the Solomon Islands, and I am saddened that the Solomon Islands has chosen nonetheless to pursue a security agreement outside the region, while such agreements will always be the right of any sovereign country to enter into, we have made clear to both Solomon Islands and China our grave concerns at the agreement’s potential to destabilize the Pacific region’s security.”
For Australia, the security agreement is nothing short of a horror! Within 1000 miles of the Solomon Islands, Australia has time and again felt threatened by the increasing ad assertive Chinese military presence in the region which led Australia to the signing of the AUKUS Pact. With a new agreement in place and with prospects of a much heavier maritime presence of China in Oceania, Australia feels itself to be highly exposed w.r.t. maritime security and intelligence. The agreement has blatantly challenged the Australian perception of being “the only security provider in the Southwest Pacific” and has caused a huge setback to its national interests of dominance in the South-West Pacific.
Australian Senator Penny Wong has criticized the sitting conservative coalition government for not doing more to prevent the agreement, which she called “the worst failure of Australian foreign policy in the Pacific since the end of World War II.”
The security agreement has counter-attacked the United States “island chain strategy” to counter Russia and China. Xue Xiaorong, a scholar at Fudan University has reiterated that “The United States losing influence in the Solomon Islands could set off a “domino effect” in the region”. In the wake of the security deal, the US has revamped its foreign policy of “ignorance, neglect, and disengagement” to “cooperation and involvement” by announcing to re-open its long-closed embassy in Honiara and bilateral and multilateral engagement with Pacific islands. According to Mihai Sora, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute,
“The U.S. in the Pacific really needs to present a positive path forward for engagement with the region, but also one that is underpinned by economic development and economic partnerships.”
Analyzing the implications of this treaty,
The United States has signaled that it would ‘respond accordingly’ if ‘steps are taken to establish a de facto permanent military presence, power-projection capabilities, or a military installation’. It may already be too late to prevent that, short of force.
The President of the Federated States of Micronesia has also expressed his grave concern over the regional dynamics and its vulnerability. In his letter to the 21 countries in the South-Western Pacific, he wrote
“The deal sought “to ensure Chinese influence in government”, as well as Chinese control of communications infrastructure, collective fisheries, and extractive resource sectors. The language of the agreement also “opens our countries up to having our phone calls and emails intercepted and overheard”
Additionally,
“In the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which would be “equivalent to a war between China and the United States,” the region risked becoming “stuck in the crossfire of the bigger countries.”
The level of Chinese engagement in the Indo-Pacific today has never been witnessed in the past. Ultimately this foreign policy shift in China owes a great deal to the decades of inadequate cooperation and approach of neglect and ignorance from the West. Therefore, the new security deal poses a lot of challenges for all its contenders. For China, the treaty can prove to be highly beneficial only if it takes public concerns and careful planning into consideration. For the West, the deal is an eye-opener and a reminder to mend its ways with the Indo-Pacific and to cooperate with the island states, not as subordinating pawns but, as a sovereign, independent, and equally important states. As for the present day, in all this geopolitical chaos, the clear winner however is the Solomon Islands, which is taking advantage of the superpower rivalry in the Indo-Pacific region while taking grants, aid, monetary compensations, and treaties from both without having to take sides. But what future implications this treaty brings forth, is yet to be unfolded.
The Security Deal
The news of the bilateral agreement came to the surface in April 2022, when the Chinese foreign ministry confirmed that Beijing had signed a five-year Security deal with the Solomon Islands. The official announcement of the pact came as Kurt Campbell, the US’s National Security Council Indo-Pacific coordinator, and Daniel Kritenbrink, its assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, announced their official visit to the Solomons, Fiji, and Papua New Guinea.The text of the document had not been made public by either of the parties. This element of “secrecy” entailed, is what arouses the suspicions nationwide as well as internationally in Australia, the United States, New Zealand, and other island countries in the Oceania region.
However, a draft of the rumoured deal was leaked in March 2022, from within the Solomon Islands and the main treaty is thought to be similar to this leaked draft, which encapsulates the following mutually agreed policy decisions:
- Beijing shall explicitly send its armed police (People’s Armed Police), military personnel, and other law enforcement forces to assist Honiara (the capital) in “maintaining social order, protecting people’s lives and property, improving natural disaster response and providing humanitarian assistance”
- China, with the consent of Honiara, shall (as per need) use its forces to protect Chinese personnel and projects.
- Chinese ships can stay at the Solomon Islands as a “stopover” and carry out “logistical replenishment” and for this purpose, facilitation centers shall be established.
- China shall cooperate in mutual training programs in cybersecurity, jointly propose a “maritime spatial plan”, engage in sensitive marine mapping, and gain greater access to natural resources.
- The involved parties shall promote trade bilaterally in the sectors of infrastructure, energy, mining, IT, E-Commerce, Agriculture, Forestry, and fisheries.
- Recommendations to propose a “Free Trade Area” in the Pacific region and more direct investment from “Reputable Chinese Enterprises”.
Implications of the Security Deal
Superficially analyzing the deal, the pact is a “just-like-every-other” security agreement between two sovereign states, to enhance bilateral and regional cooperation. But, scrutinizing the geopolitical, and strategic realities, it’s not just another deal, it entails much more.Solomon Islands’ prime, strategic location in the vicinity of the Pacific, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States, is what makes this agreement extremely substantial. Through the Solomon Islands, China can ensure maritime surveillance of Sea Lanes of Communications (SLOC) between the US and its Pacific allies. By establishing a Chinese naval presence in the Pacific region, China can counter the US’s “third island strategy” to contain China’s influence in Pacific waters. China’s armed force presence on land and offshore would directly equate to decreased West presence and influence, just like in South Asia and East Asia. Patrolling, intelligence collection, spying, defence planning, etc. would all bow down in China’s favour. The agreement postulates the establishment of Chinese naval facilitation centers in the Solomon Islands for commercial purposes. Nonetheless, according to Western experts, these facilitation centers can easily be camouflaged into naval bases, posing dire consequences to the security and maritime presence of the Western alliance as well as the existing geopolitical structure of the Pacific and Oceania region. The agreement projects China’s willingness to pursue a security role in the Southwest Pacific and with the daily increment of PLA-Navy’s deployment, the Chinese wish is transforming into reality. Western analysts also reflect upon the Chinese ambition to strengthen its diplomatic ties with the Pacific region so as to build a narrative and reinforcement of the recognition of the mainland China and not Taiwan because the Pacific islands are among the few states left to render diplomatic recognition of Taiwan and not mainland China.
As of now, both the involving parties have vehemently and frequently denied the rumours of setting up a Chinese naval base. The Prime Minister of the Solomon Islands, Sogavare has stated, “The agreement is to ensure State’s stability from the inside and not to feed any geopolitical conspiracy as the island shall avoid militarisation”
But the opposition leader Matthew Wale said
“ I do not believe the prime minister’s promise that the deal wouldn’t lead to a Chinese base in the country. I think this is the beginning of something more serious to come in this region”
He also fears,
“The security agreement would lead to a crackdown on the country’s most populous province, Malaita — where there is strong opposition to the Switch — and a return to the violence that claimed about 200 lives from 1998 to 2003”
Fears raised from within the Solomon Islands are based upon the concerns that by signing a security deal with China, Sogovare has secured his government’s future and with increased Chinese armed presence within the country, Sogavare’s political opponents could be targeted for surveillance or arrest. It reflects Beijing’s aggressive and undemocratic use of force will no longer remain a national issue; the practices shall be exported across borders. Furthermore, China’s police contingent, or PLA regular forces in the future, shall witness the protection of ethnic Chinese Solomon Islanders as falling within an extra-territorial remit.
The Opposition leader Mathew Wade expressed his skepticism,
“All the drivers of instability, insecurity, and even threats to national unity in the Solomon Islands are entirely internal,” the Solomon Star newspaper quoted Wale as saying on Wednesday. “This means that the deal, in giving an opportunity to military posturing by China, has nothing to do with Solomon Islands national security. I doubt that the provision for this in the deal is inadvertent, rather it is calculated for geopolitical effect. On the part of Prime Minister Sogavare, this is mercenary, on the part of China it is an opportunity too good to miss.”
Concerns of the West about the Deal
New Zealand has expressed its condemnation and disgust for the treaty. Its foreign minister, Nanaia Mahuta, called the agreement “unwelcome and unnecessary.”“New Zealand has a long-term security partnership with the Solomon Islands, and I am saddened that the Solomon Islands has chosen nonetheless to pursue a security agreement outside the region, while such agreements will always be the right of any sovereign country to enter into, we have made clear to both Solomon Islands and China our grave concerns at the agreement’s potential to destabilize the Pacific region’s security.”
For Australia, the security agreement is nothing short of a horror! Within 1000 miles of the Solomon Islands, Australia has time and again felt threatened by the increasing ad assertive Chinese military presence in the region which led Australia to the signing of the AUKUS Pact. With a new agreement in place and with prospects of a much heavier maritime presence of China in Oceania, Australia feels itself to be highly exposed w.r.t. maritime security and intelligence. The agreement has blatantly challenged the Australian perception of being “the only security provider in the Southwest Pacific” and has caused a huge setback to its national interests of dominance in the South-West Pacific.
Australian Senator Penny Wong has criticized the sitting conservative coalition government for not doing more to prevent the agreement, which she called “the worst failure of Australian foreign policy in the Pacific since the end of World War II.”
The security agreement has counter-attacked the United States “island chain strategy” to counter Russia and China. Xue Xiaorong, a scholar at Fudan University has reiterated that “The United States losing influence in the Solomon Islands could set off a “domino effect” in the region”. In the wake of the security deal, the US has revamped its foreign policy of “ignorance, neglect, and disengagement” to “cooperation and involvement” by announcing to re-open its long-closed embassy in Honiara and bilateral and multilateral engagement with Pacific islands. According to Mihai Sora, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute,
“The U.S. in the Pacific really needs to present a positive path forward for engagement with the region, but also one that is underpinned by economic development and economic partnerships.”
Analyzing the implications of this treaty,
The United States has signaled that it would ‘respond accordingly’ if ‘steps are taken to establish a de facto permanent military presence, power-projection capabilities, or a military installation’. It may already be too late to prevent that, short of force.
The President of the Federated States of Micronesia has also expressed his grave concern over the regional dynamics and its vulnerability. In his letter to the 21 countries in the South-Western Pacific, he wrote
“The deal sought “to ensure Chinese influence in government”, as well as Chinese control of communications infrastructure, collective fisheries, and extractive resource sectors. The language of the agreement also “opens our countries up to having our phone calls and emails intercepted and overheard”
Additionally,
“In the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which would be “equivalent to a war between China and the United States,” the region risked becoming “stuck in the crossfire of the bigger countries.”
The level of Chinese engagement in the Indo-Pacific today has never been witnessed in the past. Ultimately this foreign policy shift in China owes a great deal to the decades of inadequate cooperation and approach of neglect and ignorance from the West. Therefore, the new security deal poses a lot of challenges for all its contenders. For China, the treaty can prove to be highly beneficial only if it takes public concerns and careful planning into consideration. For the West, the deal is an eye-opener and a reminder to mend its ways with the Indo-Pacific and to cooperate with the island states, not as subordinating pawns but, as a sovereign, independent, and equally important states. As for the present day, in all this geopolitical chaos, the clear winner however is the Solomon Islands, which is taking advantage of the superpower rivalry in the Indo-Pacific region while taking grants, aid, monetary compensations, and treaties from both without having to take sides. But what future implications this treaty brings forth, is yet to be unfolded.
Author:
Lyba Mobeen is an intern working in RCIMLP and currently she is pursuing her BS degree in International Relations at International Islamic University Islamabad.
RCIMLP
Research Center For International Maritime Law & Practice
